This year, I decided to only do one final mock draft. In previous years, I would have different mock drafts from the time of the combine to draft weekend. This time around, I had rough drafts, if you will, and here is my final version as the first round approaches on Thursday.
A photoshopped image of Andrew Luck in a Colts uniform.
Here’s how I broke down my mock draft. Everyone knows Andrew Luck will be the first pick, which is no surprise. Robert Griffin III going second is not shocking either. So really, the draft begins with the Vikings at number three. Adam Schefter tweeted that an NFL general manager said, “Picks 3-16 are all trying to trade back.”People believe because of this, the draft will be a crazy ones with several teams trading up. I, however, am predicting the opposite. Several teams trying to trade back means few are looking to trade up. Draft day trades are made mostly when teams are looking to trade up for a specific player, not when there’s a scramble to give them away. So until there is a blockbuster trade on draft day which causes a chain reaction of dealing, teams will have little success in trading back.
It’s hard to predict draft day trades, as there is so many emotions and unexpected picks which trigger a deal. So in the interest of making this mock draft a bit more interesting, I included a couple of trades I can see happening. Some picks will have an explanation in this mock draft. Each pick does take need into account, but the best player available philosophy outweighs team needs in this mock draft. Two Arizona Cardinals scouting personnel members recently told me in an interview for North Valley Magazine that taking the best player available is a better way to draft than drafting based on needs in April. Best player available here is determined by who I feel would be the the ideal player remaining on the board. Also used to create this mock draft are reports of certain players rising on draft boards and others falling.
Now that I’m done rambling, here is my 2012 NFL mock draft. Enjoy, and please comment whether you agree or disagree.
- Indianapolis Colts– Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
- Washington Redskins– Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
- Minnesota Vikings– Matt Kalil, OT, USC:
Photo by Neon Tommy
Although Minnesota is looking for a playmaker and are in need of a cornerback in the pass happy NFC North, the Vikings would be foolish to pass on Kalil. A huge reason for Matt Barkley’s success this past season was Kalil’s ability to keep him on his feet. Kalil would be able to protect quarterback Christian Ponder for years to come, if last year’s first round reach is indeed their quarterback of the future. Also, with Adrian Peterson recovering from injury, the Vikings will need all the help they can get in the running game. Just because Kalil is not a, “sexy pick,” does not mean he is the best pick.
- Cleveland Browns– Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
- St. Louis Rams– Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
- Jacksonville Jaguars– Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Blackmon is the best receiver in this draft, but Floyd is a very close second. The Jaguars are in a position where drafting Floyd is neither a reach or a consolation prize, and he will definitely help in the much-needed maturation of Blaine Gabbert.
- Miami Dolphins– Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: To me, Tannehill is not a top ten talent yet, but several teams love him. As Brian Billick said, it’s better to reach for a quarterback of the future than to pass one up, and the Dolphins have done just that too many times.
- Carolina Panthers– Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
- Buffalo Bills– Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
- Kansas City Chiefs– Luke Kuechly, MLB, Boston College
- Philadelphia Eagles (trade from Seattle Seahawks)– Mark Barron, S, Alabama: In a coup to beat their rivals Dallas Cowboys to the punch, the Eagles trade up to draft a player rising up draft boards. Barron is far and away the best safety in the draft, and the Eagles have not been the same on defense since Brian Dawkins left. Enter Barron to stop the likes of Griffin, Eli Manning and Tony Romo twice a year.
- Arizona Cardinals– Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: At this point, this pick could either be Martin or David DeCastro, the offensive guard also from Stanford. Both have equal grades, but with offensive tackle Levi Brown not working out as expected, quarterback Kevin Kolb concussed most of 2011, John Skelton always finding himself under duress and the addition of guard Adam Snyder via free agency, Martin seems to make more sense here.
- Dallas Cowboys– David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
- Seattle Seahawks (trade from Philadelphia Eagles)– Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
- New York Jets– Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
- Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland’s Carson Palmer trade)– Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
- San Diego Chargers– Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse: Not sold on Jones, but he is another player shooting up draft boards. No offense to Chargers fans, but their recent picks have not turned out too well. Only six of their past 34 picks have been starters, while ten are now on other teams. For every Eric Weddle lies a Craig Davis or Larry English. We’ll see where Jones lands on this scale.
- Chicago Bears– Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois: Mercilus ends the run on defensive ends/potential outside linebackers.
- Tennessee Titans– Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
- Cincinnati Bengals– Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: Although the Bengals have a superstar in A.J. Green, he’ll need help at the other receiver spot. With Wright, the Bengals can have an explosive passing attack to expose the potentially flawed secondaries of Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Plus, the Bengals would prevent their in-state rivals in Cleveland from drafting the speedy wide receiver.
- Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta’s Julio Jones trade)– Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama: For some reason, Upshaw is falling down draft boards, and Cleveland will count their blessings for this. Upshaw will be a Pro Bowl caliber player wherever he winds up.
- Detroit Lions– Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
- Pittsburgh Steelers-Dont’a Hightower, MLB, Alabama
- Denver Broncos– Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
- Houston Texans– Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
- New England Patriots (from New Orleans’ Mark Ingram trade)– Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State: The most draft-trade-happy team in the NFL shocks the world and keeps their draft pick; well, one of them. McClellin is drawing a lot of late attention, and rightfully so. He is an often overlooked player who has tremendous talent and hustle. While comparison’s to Clay Matthews are a bit overboard, McClellin can definitely provide the pass rush New England has needed in the past couple of years.
- Green Bay Packers– Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson
- Baltimore Ravens– Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
- San Francisco 49ers– Michael Brockers, DT, LSU:
LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers, left, vs. Auburn last year (AP file photo)
It is tempting to predict the 49ers taking Coby Fleener, as he played under Jim Harbaugh at Stanford. San Francisco could also take guards Kevin Zeitler of Wisconsin or Cordy Glenn of Georgia to replace the recently departed Snyder, but it’s unfathomable that Brockers is still available at this point. The 49ers are in a prime best available position, and Brockers is definitely the most talented still on the board. Brockers would provide immediate depth on a great defense and could eventually replace Justin Smith when he hangs up his cleats.
- Indianapolis Colts (trade from New England Patriots)– Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford: There’s no way the Patriots could go without making a trade in the first round. When the Colts come calling to jump over the Giants at 32 and Rams at 33, the Patriots happily accept to stockpile picks as always. The Colts currently have three tight ends on their roster in Brody Eldridge, Ryan Mahaffey and Kyle Miller. If you asked yourself who, no one will blame you. The tight end position is becoming extremely important in the NFL (just look at the success of New England, New Orleans and San Francisco) and the top pick in the draft currently has no safety valve to get the ball to. Who better to select than Luck’s Stanford teammate? Fleener has great potential and both he and Luck can be the next Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark.
- New York Giants– Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
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