2012 NFL Mock Draft

This year, I decided to only do one final mock draft. In previous years, I would have different mock drafts from the time of the combine to draft weekend. This time around, I had rough drafts, if you will, and here is my final version as the first round approaches on Thursday.

A photoshopped image of Andrew Luck in a Colts uniform.

Here’s how I broke down my mock draft. Everyone knows Andrew Luck will be the first pick, which is no surprise. Robert Griffin III going second is not shocking either. So really, the draft begins with the Vikings at number three. Adam Schefter tweeted that an NFL general manager said, “Picks 3-16 are all trying to trade back.”People believe because of this, the draft will be a crazy ones with several teams trading up. I, however, am predicting the opposite. Several teams trying to trade back means few are looking to trade up. Draft day trades are made mostly when teams are looking to trade up for a specific player, not when there’s a scramble to give them away. So until there is a blockbuster trade on draft day which causes a chain reaction of dealing, teams will have little success in trading back.

It’s hard to predict draft day trades, as there is so many emotions and unexpected picks which trigger a deal. So in the interest of making this mock draft a bit more interesting, I included a couple of trades I can see happening. Some picks will have an explanation in this mock draft. Each pick does take need into account, but the best player available philosophy outweighs team needs in this mock draft. Two Arizona Cardinals scouting personnel members recently told me in an interview for North Valley Magazine that taking the best player available is a better way to draft than drafting based on needs in April. Best player available here is determined by who I feel would be the the ideal player remaining on the board. Also used to create this mock draft are reports of certain players rising on draft boards and others falling.

Now that I’m done rambling, here is my 2012 NFL mock draft. Enjoy, and please comment whether you agree or disagree.

1. Indianapolis Colts– Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2. Washington Redskins– Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
3. Minnesota Vikings– Matt Kalil, OT, USC:
   

   Photo by Neon Tommy

   Although Minnesota is looking for a playmaker and are in need of a cornerback in the pass happy NFC North, the Vikings would be foolish to pass on Kalil. A huge reason for Matt Barkley’s success this past season was Kalil’s ability to keep him on his feet. Kalil would be able to protect quarterback Christian Ponder for years to come, if last year’s first round reach is indeed their quarterback of the future. Also, with Adrian Peterson recovering from injury, the Vikings will need all the help they can get in the running game. Just because Kalil is not a, “sexy pick,” does not mean he is the best pick.

4. Cleveland Browns– Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
6. St. Louis Rams– Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars– Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Blackmon is the best receiver in this draft, but Floyd is a very close second. The Jaguars are in a position where drafting Floyd is neither a reach or a consolation prize, and he will definitely help in the much-needed maturation of Blaine Gabbert.
8. Miami Dolphins– Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: To me, Tannehill is not a top ten talent yet, but several teams love him. As Brian Billick said, it’s better to reach for a quarterback of the future than to pass one up, and the Dolphins have done just that too many times.
9. Carolina Panthers– Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
10. Buffalo Bills– Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
11. Kansas City Chiefs– Luke Kuechly, MLB, Boston College
12. Philadelphia Eagles (trade from Seattle Seahawks)– Mark Barron, S, Alabama: In a coup to beat their rivals Dallas Cowboys to the punch, the Eagles trade up to draft a player rising up draft boards. Barron is far and away the best safety in the draft, and the Eagles have not been the same on defense since Brian Dawkins left. Enter Barron to stop the likes of Griffin, Eli Manning and Tony Romo twice a year.
13. Arizona Cardinals– Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: At this point, this pick could either be Martin or David DeCastro, the offensive guard also from Stanford. Both have equal grades, but with offensive tackle Levi Brown not working out as expected, quarterback Kevin Kolb concussed most of 2011, John Skelton always finding himself under duress and the addition of guard Adam Snyder via free agency, Martin seems to make more sense here.
14. Dallas Cowboys– David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
15. Seattle Seahawks (trade from Philadelphia Eagles)– Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
16. New York Jets– Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland’s Carson Palmer trade)– Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
18. San Diego Chargers– Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse: Not sold on Jones, but he is another player shooting up draft boards. No offense to Chargers fans, but their recent picks have not turned out too well. Only six of their past 34 picks have been starters, while ten are now on other teams. For every Eric Weddle lies a Craig Davis or Larry English. We’ll see where Jones lands on this scale.
19. Chicago Bears– Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois: Mercilus ends the run on defensive ends/potential outside linebackers.
20. Tennessee Titans– Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
21. Cincinnati Bengals– Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: Although the Bengals have a superstar in A.J. Green, he’ll need help at the other receiver spot. With Wright, the Bengals can have an explosive passing attack to expose the potentially flawed secondaries of Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Plus, the Bengals would prevent their in-state rivals in Cleveland from drafting the speedy wide receiver.
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta’s Julio Jones trade)– Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama: For some reason, Upshaw is falling down draft boards, and Cleveland will count their blessings for this. Upshaw will be a Pro Bowl caliber player wherever he winds up.
23. Detroit Lions– Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
24. Pittsburgh Steelers-Dont’a Hightower, MLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos– Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
26. Houston Texans– Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans’ Mark Ingram trade)– Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State: The most draft-trade-happy team in the NFL shocks the world and keeps their draft pick; well, one of them. McClellin is drawing a lot of late attention, and rightfully so. He is an often overlooked player who has tremendous talent and hustle. While comparison’s to Clay Matthews are a bit overboard, McClellin can definitely provide the pass rush New England has needed in the past couple of years.
28. Green Bay Packers– Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson
29. Baltimore Ravens– Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers– Michael Brockers, DT, LSU:
    

    LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers, left, vs. Auburn last year (AP file photo)

    It is tempting to predict the 49ers taking Coby Fleener, as he played under Jim Harbaugh at Stanford. San Francisco could also take guards Kevin Zeitler of Wisconsin or Cordy Glenn of Georgia to replace the recently departed Snyder, but it’s unfathomable that Brockers is still available at this point. The 49ers are in a prime best available position, and Brockers is definitely the most talented still on the board. Brockers would provide immediate depth on a great defense and could eventually replace Justin Smith when he hangs up his cleats.

31. Indianapolis Colts (trade from New England Patriots)– Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford: There’s no way the Patriots could go without making a trade in the first round. When the Colts come calling to jump over the Giants at 32 and Rams at 33, the Patriots happily accept to stockpile picks as always. The Colts currently have three tight ends on their roster in Brody Eldridge, Ryan Mahaffey and Kyle Miller. If you asked yourself who, no one will blame you. The tight end position is becoming extremely important in the NFL (just look at the success of New England, New Orleans and San Francisco) and the top pick in the draft currently has no safety valve to get the ball to. Who better to select than Luck’s Stanford teammate? Fleener has great potential and both he and Luck can be the next Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark.
32. New York Giants– Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

2011 NCAA football week 5 top 25

Alabama linebacker Dont'a Hightower (30) celebrates with coach Kirby Smart, left, defensive back Vinnie Sunseri (3), and linebacker Nico Johnson (35) after stopping Arkansas on a fourth and one during the second half of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2011 in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo)

There were plenty of great match-ups over the weekend in college football. There are quite a few changes to give this week’s top 25 a different look, starting at the top. And no, it doesn’t begin with LSU.

My new number one team is Alabama. The AP top 25 says otherwise, but Alabama is the better and more deserving team in my eyes. LSU beat a Big Least team, which was vastly overrated by many, and which it should’ve handled easily. West Virginia may not even be the best team in their own conference. Therefore, that win does not impress me whatsoever. It is expected for an SEC school to dominate one in the Big East. LSU’s win against Mississippi State doesn’t impress me now, either. The Bulldogs lost two games in a row and needed overtime to beat Louisiana Tech. How does beating Mississippi State two weeks ago validate LSU? Just because it was a conference win? If that’s the case, Stanford should be higher after destroying Arizona. While LSU holds a win over a good team in Oregon, they also played Northwestern State, an FCS school.

Meanwhile, Alabama has played nothing but FBS schools and handled each one easily. Then, the Crimson Tide pummeled Arkansas, a team actually worthy of their ranking and with top 10 potential. Not only does Alabama have a better team and coaching staff, but they beat a far better opponent over the weekend than LSU did. Oklahoma did not help it’s cause against Missouri, as they needed to run up the score like they usually do and couldn’t. With that said, Alabama is truly the team worthy of leaping over the Sooners for the number one spot.

The game of the week belongs to Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M for their tale of two halves. A&M led 20-3 at one point, only to surrender 30 unanswered points. The Aggies were only able to muster seven points in the second half before the Cowboys gave up a safety as time expired to win the game. A huge reason for the Cowboys winning the game was quarterback Brandon Weeden, as he finally avoided throwing an interception. Weeden’s 438 yard efficient effort showed how good he can be in big games. As lopsided as both sides were in each half, it made for compelling football between two top 10 teams.

1- Alabama Crimson Tide: The number one team this week will have to go out and prove they are the top dogs as they head to Florida for a huge SEC clash.

2- Oklahoma Sooners: Landry Jones and the Sooners will reclaim their top spot with an impressive win over… Ball State? Eh, maybe. Let’s see how ‘Bama does.

3- LSU Tigers: Until they beat a legitimate SEC contender, I don’t believe this team is as good as many think they are. That game will be in two weeks against Florida, not this coming weekend against Kentucky.

4- Boise State Broncos: The MWC never said anything about not wearing all blue uniforms against non-conference opponents! Boise State took full advantage and wore their famous uniforms, and thus looked good in trouncing Tulsa. Now, time for revenge against Nevada.

5- Oklahoma State Cowboys: When Weeden is on and in sync with Justin Blackmon, this team is one of the best in the nation. They’ll have to continue to show their dominance in the Big-12 against Kansas.

6- Stanford Cardinal: Luck and company are number four in the coaches poll, but I don’t see them as being better than any of the previous five teams. They’ll have to dominate the Pac-12 in order to rise higher.

7- Wisconsin Badgers: The big game against Nebraska is finally here. Will Russell Wilson and the Badgers give the Cornhuskers a rude welcome to the Big Ten…

8- Nebraska Cornhuskers: …Or will Taylor Martinez step up as a passer and shock Wisconsin?

9- South Carolina Gamecocks:  The Gamecocks did not have a convincing win over Vanderbilt. They will need to beat up on Auburn to show they are worthy of being a top 10 team.

10- Oregon Ducks: Better to lose early rather than late, right? The Ducks are proof of such a theory, as they are back in the top 10 and should remain here with a bye week.

11- Florida Gators:  Florida could have the biggest leap into the top 10 we’ve seen this year if they give the country it’s first upset of the top team this season.

12- Baylor Bears:  Having Baylor at number 12 just looks strange. But with Robert Griffin on their side, things seem to balance out. The potential Heisman candidate has completed 85 percent of his passes for 962 yards, 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in three games. Expect more of the same as Baylor travels to Kansas State.

13- Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hokies had yet another above-average performance against Marshall. A team as talented as Virginia Tech should blow one like Marshall out of the water. Instead, they settled for a 30-10 win. They’ll need to do more against Clemson this week.

Texas quarterback Case McCoy eludes the pass rush of UCLA before throwing a touchdown pass late in the second quarter September 17 at the Rose Bowl. ( Jayne Kamin-Oncea / US Presswire / September 17, 2011 )

14- Texas Longhorns: Look who’s back at a normal slot in the top 25. With Garrett Gilbert now out for the season due to surgery, the Longhorns can return to Big-12 glory by avenging last year’s loss to Iowa State before facing Oklahoma.

15- Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies are probably a better team than this position indicates, but with a Big-12 loss, they go behind Baylor and Texas. They could, however, redeem themselves against Arkansas this week. Or they can fall even further.

16- South Florida Bulls: South Florida could be the best team in the Big East. They’ll have to prove it as they finally begin conference play at Pittsburgh.

17- TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs poured it on against Portland State, as they should have, and finally scored over 50 points this season. It looks like this team may be figuring things out now, and it couldn’t come at a better time than this week against a potentially dangerous SMU team.

18- Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks shouldn’t fall too far from the 13 position I had them in before losing to the Crimson Tide. After all, Alabama is my new number one team.

19- Clemson Tigers: Clemson finally makes it into the top 25 after an impressive win against Florida State. Sure, EJ Manuel wasn’t starting, but to put up 35 points on Florida State after even OU couldn’t is strong statement.

20- Michigan Wolverines: Head coach Brady Hoke was successful in taking his former team down. Denard Robinson was amazing with his legs, but awful with his arm. Luckily the Wolverines have Minnesota next to help him get back on track.

21- Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois continues to fly under most people’s radar because of close wins like the one over Western Michigan. The Big Ten will soon find out though how good the Illini can be as they host Northwestern. 

22- Arizona State Sun Devils: ASU beat USC for the first time in 11 years and knocked them out of the top 25. While USC shot itself in the foot throughout the game, the Sun Devils did impress as Brock Osweiler was effective and Cameron Marshall ran for 141 yards. ASU also debuted a new uniform style, wearing all maroon to pound the Trojans.

23- Houston Cougars: Here’s a quick breakdown of the upcoming Houston vs. UTEP game: Houston will be looking for revenge after UTEP upset them in 2009. UTEP is coming off of a 56-24 loss to South Florida. Houston is coming off of a 56-0 win over Georgia State, an FCS team. UTEP barely beat Stony Brook, an FCS team, earlier this season. You figure out what the outcome will be.

24- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: If the Yellow Jackets don’t deserve to be in the top 25 for their undefeated start thus far, then they at least deserve it for this amazing one-handed grab by Stephen Hill. Let’s see what wonders Hill can pull off against N.C. State.

25- West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers shouldn’t be penalized too much for losing big to LSU. However, they may be surpassed in the rankings if they don’t handle Bowling Green with ease. Look for Geno Smith to have a big game to prevent that from happening.